THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
IS CLOSED
21 miles wide · 20 million barrels/day · Shut.
🔴 20+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN        🔴 20+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN
Intelligence Brief
BY THE NUMBERS
0
Barrels / Day
0
Global Oil Supply
0
Ships Attacked
0
Seafarers Killed
0
Ships Gone Dark
0
GPS Signals Jammed
0
Oil Price Surge
—
Insurance Coverage
0
BBL Reserve (SPR)
Escalation
13 DAYS OF CRISIS
DAY 13
Feb 27 — Day 1
US Navy ships leave Bahrain. Fifth Fleet repositions ahead of strikes.
Feb 28 — Day 2
Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in US strike.
Mar 1 — Day 3
First ships attacked. MV Skylight hit — 2 seafarers killed.
Mar 2 — Day 4
IRGC announces formal closure. Zero tankers transit the Strait.
Mar 3 — Day 5
Iran drone swarm hits Qatar gas infrastructure. LNG supply severed.
Mar 4 — Day 6
IRGC claims "complete control" of Strait. Mines confirmed in shipping lanes.
Mar 5 — Day 7
Lloyd's, P&I clubs withdraw war risk insurance for Persian Gulf.
Mar 8 — Day 10
Brent crude breaks $100/barrel. Psychological barrier shattered.
Mar 9 — Day 11
Oil hits $119.50. Only 1 ship makes it through the Strait.
Mar 10 — Day 12
Iran deploys mines in shipping lanes. US Navy destroys 16 minelaying vessels.
Mar 11 — Day 13
3 commercial ships hit in 3 hours. Strait effectively impassable.
AIS Tracking
THE VANISHING FLEET
82
DAILY SHIP TRANSITS
0–4 ships/day by March 9 · 46+ vessels switched off AIS transponders
Brent Crude
OIL PRICE SURGE
$120
$100
$80
$60
$100 — PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER
$67Feb 27
$77.74Mar 1
$88Mar 5
$100+Mar 8
$119.50Mar 9
$91Mar 11
AIS Navigation Metadata
MESSAGES IN A BOTTLE
🚢
ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
ALL CHINESE
Source: CSIS — Center for Strategic & International Studies
🚢
NO IL LINK
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
CHINA OWNER
Source: Bloomberg — vessel: Iron Maiden
Ships are writing survival messages into their navigation metadata.
The Novel Angle
WHO ACTUALLY GETS HURT?
HORMUZ CRITICALLY DEPENDENT (50-80%+) MINIMAL EXPOSURE (~5%) CHOKEPOINT SOURCE
HORMUZ OIL DEPENDENCY BY REGION

🔴 South Korea / Japan / Taiwan

80%+
of oil imports pass through Hormuz
No meaningful alternative. Genuinely screwed.

🟢 United States

~5%
of oil is imported from Persian Gulf
Largest oil producer on Earth. Barely affected.
⚡ The public narrative that "gas is going to be expensive for everyone" misses the real story — this is an Asian energy crisis, not an American one.
Japan
80%+
South Korea
80%+
Taiwan
80%+
India
60%
China
50%
Europe
14%
United States
~2%
84% of Hormuz crude goes to Asia · 0% goes to the US
War Risk Premium
THE INSURANCE KILL SWITCH
$125,000
War risk premium per transit — February
$200,000
Premium doubles — March 1
$400,000
Premium quadruples — March 4
$500,000+
Premiums "unpriceable" — March 5
COVERAGE
CANCELLED
No insurance = No ship owner risks a $100M+ vessel. The Strait doesn't need to be physically blocked — just uninsurable.
Oil Flow Diagram
WHO GETS WHAT — THROUGH HORMUZ
Saudi Arabia 5.5M bbl/d Iraq 3.3M bbl/d UAE 2.8M bbl/d Qatar (LNG) 3.5M boe/d Kuwait 1.7M bbl/d Iran 1.3M bbl/d STRAIT OF HORMUZ 20M bbl/d China 5M bbl/d India 3M bbl/d Japan 2.5M bbl/d S. Korea 2M bbl/d Europe 2M bbl/d Others 5.5M bbl/d
20M barrels/day — CUT OFF
Global Fragility
CHOKEPOINT DOMINOS
IRANOMAN
Strait of Hormuz
20M bbl/day · 21 miles wide
Connects Persian Gulf → Gulf of Oman
🔴 CLOSED
SUEZYEMEN
Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb
9M bbl/day · 205m wide
Houthi attacks ongoing since 2024
🟡 DISRUPTED
MALACCA
Strait of Malacca
16M bbl/day · 1.7 miles wide
Key route: Middle East → East Asia
🟢 OPEN
PANAMA
Panama Canal
1M bbl/day · 110ft wide
Drought-restricted since 2023
🟡 RESTRICTED
The world's shipping network has almost no redundancy. Two of four major chokepoints are now compromised.
Supply Chain
FROM STRAIT TO STORE
⛔ HORMUZ CLOSED — 20M bbl/day severed
▼
TIER 1 — Direct Impact
Oil +70%
Natural Gas
LNG Severed
Shipping Costs
▼
TIER 2 — Industrial Cascade
Fertilizer +43%
Jet Fuel
Plastics
Aluminum
Petrochemicals
▼
TIER 3 — Consumer Impact
Food Prices ↑
Manufacturing Halts
Universities Closed
Fuel Caps
Rationing
Navigation
THE ONLY DETOUR

Normal Route: HORMUZ

Persian Gulf → Strait of Hormuz → Gulf of Oman → Arabian Sea

Transit time: ~1 day

Cost: Standard

❌ CLOSED

Detour: Cape of Good Hope

Around the southern tip of Africa

Added distance: +3,500–4,000 nautical miles

Added time: +10–14 days

Added cost: $millions in fuel per voyage

⚠️ ONLY OPTION
HORMUZ — CLOSEDCAPE OF GOOD HOPE+3,500 NM / +14 DAYSSUEZ DISRUPTEDNORMAL ROUTE (CLOSED)CAPE DETOUR (+14 DAYS)
SHIPPING ROUTE COMPARISON
⚠️ Red Sea / Suez Canal ALSO disrupted by Houthi attacks — ships face a double disruption. The "detour" route is itself compromised.
Analysis
GOLDMAN SACHS SCENARIOS
Full 1-month closure, no offsets
+$15/bbl
Full closure + pipeline rerouting
+$12/bbl
Full closure + pipelines + reserves
+$10/bbl (base case)
50% closure + pipelines
+$4/bbl
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 2026
Incident Log
20+ SHIPS HIT
MAR 1
MV Skylight — Hit by IRGC missiles. 2 seafarers killed. First casualties.
MAR 1
MT Nissos Kea — Greek tanker struck. Crew evacuated.
MAR 2
Stena Imperative — Swedish-owned tanker seized, then released.
MAR 3
MV Pacific Venture — Hit during Qatar gas infrastructure attack wave.
MAR 4
2 vessels — Struck by IRGC fast-attack boats near Qeshm Island.
MAR 6
Mussafah 2 — UAE-flagged vessel. Sunk. 3 crew killed.
MAR 8
3 tankers — Damaged by mines in eastern shipping lane.
MAR 10
Mine warfare — US Navy destroys 16 IRGC minelaying vessels.
MAR 11
3 ships hit in 3 hours — Coordinated ASCM + drone + fast boat attack. 3 killed.
TOTAL
20+ vessels attacked or damaged · Multiple ships seized · Mines deployed across shipping lanes
8 SEAFARERS KILLED
Last Line of Defense
US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
BRYAN MOUNDBIG HILLW. HACKBERRYBAYOU CHOCTAWTXLAGULF OF MEXICO
SPR SALT CAVERN LOCATIONS — TX/LA GULF COAST
Total SPR Capacity
~400M barrels
Stored in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast · Only backfills ~50% of reduced capacity
Bryan Mound
Brazoria County, Texas
~75M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░ salt dome caverns
Big Hill
Jefferson County, Texas
~160M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ salt dome caverns
West Hackberry
Cameron Parish, Louisiana
~110M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ salt dome caverns
Bayou Choctaw
Iberville Parish, Louisiana
~55M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░ salt dome caverns
⚠️ At peak draw rate (~4.4M bbl/day), the SPR could offset roughly half the Hormuz shortfall — but only for ~90 days. After that, the wells run dry.